Simon's 2018 Election Predictions
For years now Simon has been a participant in The Hill's election prediction contest. He submitted his answers to their questions Monday morning, which you can find below or here on The Hill's website. A fun fact - Simon and Grover Norquist are the only two-time winners of The Hill's election prediction contest. So this one really matters.
Who will win control of the House?
Democrats.
How many House seats with GOP/Dems pick up?
Democrats will pick up 40 seats.
Who will win control of the Senate?
GOP.
How many Senate seats will GOP/Dems pick up?
Democrats will pick up 1, and on election night will be at 50. Control of the Senate will come down to the Mississippi 2 runoff which might be more competitive than people realize. If Beto somehow pulls it out in Texas he could give the Democrats the Senate.
Who will win the Senate race in Florida?
Nelson.
Who will win the Senate race in Missouri?
McCaskill.
Who will win governor's race in Florida?
Gillum.
Who will win governor's race in Georgia?
Abrams.
Who will win the Senate race in Indiana?
Donnelly.
Who will win the Senate race in Arizona?
Sinema.
Analysis: (Please write 50-100 words on what the takeaway of the elections will be)
With the House flipping, Rs underperforming in 2020 battleground gubernatorial races and a new GOP weakness in the Rustbelt/Midwest emerging, election night 2018 will be a huge blow to an already deeply unpopular President. Questions about the sustainability of Trumpism will dominate the post-election analysis, encouraging responsible GOP party leaders to challenge him more directly in the days ahead.
The building of the post-Clinton/Obama Democratic Party will get an enormous boost as Democrats will elect an unusually talented set of new leaders across the country. Watch the House freshman class – will be among most capable and exciting of modern era.
