Daily Trade Polling Update

A few weeks ago, Simon wrote a memo outlining the current state of polling on Trump’s tariffs and trade policy more generally. We have decided to turn this into a live document that will be updated as new polls come out. Feel free to come back and check the most recent polling on this important issue.

This Daily Trade Polling Update is part of a new series produced by NDN challenging Trump’s tariffs.

National Polling

Free trade continues to remain remarkably popular in national polling. The August NBC/WSJ poll (pp 20) asked “In general, do you think that free trade between the United States and foreign countries has helped the United States, has hurt the United States, or has not made much of a difference either way?” 50% said helped, only 23% said hurt. A September Pew poll found similar numbers with 74% saying that trade with other countries is good for the US, compared to only 21% who said it was bad. A June Monmouth poll found 52% believing free trade agreements between the US and other countries were good for the US, only 14% disagreed. Finally, a September poll from the Chicago Council found that the highest percentages ever registered in the survey (since 2004) say that trade is good for the US economy (82%), good for consumers like you (85%), and good for creating jobs in the U.S. (67%).

In addition, Trump’s protectionist trade policies are widely unpopular nationwide. The July NBC/WSJ poll asked about Trump’s tariffs — 25% said they would help the economy, 49% said hurt. An August Monmouth poll found that 38% thought Trump’s tariffs would hurt the economy, compared to 28% who thought it would help it. An August poll from ABC/Washington Post found a similar 41/50 split on Trump’s tariffs. In an April Quinnipiac poll, a whopping 68% said a trade war with China would be bad for the US economy. Only 22% said good. A June Suffolk poll found only 35% support for the NAFTA renegotiation, and a June CBS poll found support for tariffs on Canada to be only 27% (62% disapprove). In a June CNN poll, 63% said it was better for the US to maintain relations with our close allies rather than impose tariffs. Only 25% said tariffs were better. Finally, the September Chicago Council poll found support for NAFTA at its highest level yet (63%), and a majority (61%) supports US participation in the revised Pacific trade agreement, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Seven in ten are concerned that a trade war with China will hurt their local economy; while just over half are concerned about the impact of a trade war with Mexico.

In polls which broke out the numbers by party, an overwhelming majority of Democrats come out in favor of free trade and against tariffs. In the April Pew poll, 67% of Democrats said free trade was a good thing, just 19% said bad. 63% opposed the tariffs, just 22% supported. Furthermore, in the August ABC/Washington Post poll, which found support of Trump’s tariffs to be at 41% support/50% opposed, Democrats opposed them 75% to 18%.

State Polling

Polling of individual states has found a remarkably similar pro-trade trend, particularly in the Rust Belt that supposedly opposed globalization the most.  A series of Marist/NBC polls found support of the tariffs to be 23/42 in IL, 29/41 in MO, 28/46 in PA and 33/40 in Texas (links here and here). A recent Suffolk University poll (pp 22–23) of Wisconsin found support for the tariffs on China to be 39/47, and on “EU, Canada and Mexico” 31/57. That the popularity of a major Trump policy initiative is under 33% in states like Missouri, Pennsylvania and Texas is pretty remarkable.

House Polling

Trump’s tariffs are also significantly underwater in some of the most heavily-contested House districts ahead of the midterm elections, using data from the New York Times’ live polling project. In Iowa’s 1st district (which went Republican by 7.6 points in 2016), support for NAFTA is at 59%, compared to only 29% in opposition. Further, 55% oppose Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, compared to 36% in support. In California’s 49th district (R+0.6 in 2016), 63% support NAFTA and 22% oppose, while 53% oppose the steel and aluminum tariffs and only 33% support them. In Texas’ 32nd district (which didn’t even have a Democratic House candidate in 2016), 61% support NAFTA compared to 28% who oppose it, while 50% oppose the steel and aluminum tariffs and only 39% support them. Finally, in Kansas’ 3rd district (R+10.7 in 2016), 60% support NAFTA and 27% oppose it, while 56% oppose the steel/aluminum tariffs and 34% support them.

In each of these districts, furthermore, significant opposition to Trump’s trade policies has accompanied a large shift towards the Democratic candidate. While each district voted Republican in 2016, Democrats leads by 15 points in Iowa 1, 10 points in California 49, and 8 points in Kansas 3, and trail by 1 point in Texas 32.