Under 45 Year Olds Swing Hard to Dems in VA

While we all plow through the data over the next few days (Prince William 61-38!), we focus today on the dramatic movement in the under 45 vote in Virginia last night. Using the 2016 and 2017 exits, we know that in 2016 the vote split this way:

• Under 45s - Clinton 54 Trump 38 (plus 16)
• 45s and over - 51 Trump 47 Clinton (plus 4)

Last night in VA it was:

• Under 45s - 64 Northam 34 Gillespie (plus 30)
• 45s and over - Gillespie 51 Northam 49 (plus 2)

For 18-29 years olds it went from 54-36 Clinton/Trump to 69-30 Northam/Gillespie; from plus 18 to plus 39. This is a lot of movement, and not a great deal of movement with people 45 and over.

It is our belief here at NDN that Americans under 45, all of whom came of age after the Reagan Presidency and in this new age of globalization which began in 1989, are a key demographic to watch in the years ahead. They went 53-39 for Clinton in 2016 (45s and over went 52-44 for Trump). And in their political lifetime what they have known are two failed Republican Presidents, 2 relatively successful Democratic ones and now Trump. This age cohort is approaching high 40s of the electorate now, and swings like the one we saw last night if replicated in 2018 spell big trouble for Republicans, particularly in parts of the country with many younger voters, places like CA, FL, TX.

More on this soon.