Foreign Policy Chat - Will The French Pull Out Of Afghanistan?

Newly elected French Prime Minister Francois Hollande has pledged to begin removing the 3,300 French troops from Afghanistan almost immediately -- far sooner than the previously committed withdrawal date at the end of 2014. Top US officials have been sent to Paris, hoping to persuade Hollande to reconsider his decision ahead of next weeks major NATO summit in Chicago. A premature French pull-out, if unable to be avoided, would almost surely have negative implications for the success of NATO's exit and stabilization strategy. Anthony Cordesman, a leading expert on the Afghanistan conflict who holds the Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, warned that:

Every new force cut that comes faster than previously planned, or weakens ISAF unilaterally and before 2014, makes a successful transition even more difficult. It undermines ISAF's ability to act and plan an effective transition, it makes it harder to predict what aid and civil activities can continue, and it risks triggering more cuts from other countries and a rush to the exits.

As polls show low and shrinking levels of public support -- both in the U.S. and in France -- for the ongoing operation in Afghanistan, it appears unlikely that the commitment and resources necessary to allow for a sound transition will actually be deployed. At this point, most planners are simply hoping to dodge the worst case scenarios.