NDN Analysis - A New Dynamic Has Taken Hold in the 2010 Elections

After a few weeks of writing and discussing some changes we had picked up in the national polls, I think it is clear a new national dynamic has emerged - the Republicans are losing ground, and the Democrats are gaining.

Consider the two charts below.  The first is an aggregate of all national polling of the so-called "Congressional Generic Ballot," which asks the simple question "do you intend to vote Democrat or Republican this fall?"  In this aggregate, the Republican advantage has gone from 5-6 points to 1 1/2 percentage points in recent weeks.  In the independent Gallup survey chart a similar trend can be found, with the GOP losing 6 percentage points in the generic in the last month.  That same six point drop can be found in the recent WSJ/MSNBC poll released late last week.  In that poll the GOP advantage went from 49-40 to 46-43. 

The data now indicates that any talk of a "Republican Wave" needs to be dismissed, and a new theory of the 2010 elections, one which takes into account this late movement towards the Democrats and away from the Republicans, needs to be fashioned. 

We've offered some initial thoughts on why this all may be happening in a series of recent essays, which you can find HERE.   Also be sure to read this new national Reuters story, which takes an in depth look at this new dynamic.

PM Update - New polling from GOP friendly Rasmussen has found a 7 point net swing to the Democrats in recent weeks. and now has the generic at 45-42.