Further Evidence the GOP Wave Has Crested, and Is Receding Now

Submitted by Simon Rosenberg on 9/29/10

The new WSJ/MSNBC poll out this morning shows similar movement that we've seen in other polls of late - a dip in the GOP's numbers and a rise for the Democrats.   Their likely voter Congressional Generic sample moved from 49-40 for the GOP in August, to 46-43.  As I've written elsewhere, what is important here is that it is not just that the Democrats are gaining, it is also that the GOP is dropping.  And as anyone in politics knows, you don't want to go into the last 5 weeks of any election as the GOP is entering the home stretch of 2010 - losing ground while your opponent is gaining.  These kind of trend lines are hard to reverse at this stage of an election.  I have believed for a long time that the election would end this way, for the Democrats have a much stronger closing argument than the GOP.

As we saw yesterday analysts are finding evidence of Democrats gaining ground across the country.  Consider that in a slew of Senate races - DE, KY, PA, CO, NV, CA, WA - the Democratic candidate is in much stronger shape than a few weeks ago.  

I also find it of interest that the GOP is hovering around 46% in most of the aggregate averages and in the new WSJ/MSNBC poll.   This is the same percentage of the vote they received in the last two elections, indicating that despite all the noise the Republican Party is exactly where it was in 2006 and 2008, and those were not good elections for them.  As Barack Obama said yesterday if everyone who votes for the Democrats in 2006 and 2008 just vote again his party will be fine.  Clearly at this stage the same cannot be said for the GOP. 

There is now enough evidence of late to indicate that 2010 should no longer be considered a "wave election."  Or if it is, then it appears that the GOP wave has crested, and is receding now - a dangerous mental image for a party as unpopular, ideologically divided and as out of touch with every day Americans as the modern GOP.

Was on Fox yesterday talking about all this.  Check it out below: