Taking Jeb Bush Seriously
Matt Bai has a very good piece in today's NYTimes on Jeb Bush. Despite the obvious problems with a third Bush running for President, the Democrats should be taking a potential Bush candidacy seriously in 2012.
Thrree quick observations:
1) He is the strongest potential Republican candidate on the scene today, and could win the GOP nomination.
2) He can win Hispanic votes, and change the electoral map. Unlike his brother, Jeb is fluent in Spanish, and married to a Mexican immigrant. If the midwest is weaker for Obama in 2012 due to the economy, VA/NC more difficult, Obama's firewall becomes the heavily Latino Southwest and Florida. Right now Jeb, who has opposed SB1070, is the only GOPer who could likely break through that Latin firewall and flip the electoral college.
Bush is from Florida, the GOP's convention is there in 2012, and if he puts a newly electred CA governor Meg Whitman on the ticket, could even put CA into play, forcing the Democrats to spend tens of millions of dollars just to defend. His strength in Florida alone changes the electoral calculations for 2012, potentially taking the biggest swing state in the Presidential election off the table.
The Bush family has shown great facility at appealing to Hispanic voters in past elections. Jeb's potential strength in the emerging Latin electoral belt in the Southern and Western US makes him a very formidible candidate.
3) He is motivated. The Bush family needs some new and better chapters in their book of national service. The last few chapters have not been so good.
My own gut is that if Obama looks vulnerable early next year Jeb will jump in and go for it. And if he does 2012 is going to be a serious and highly contested campaign.
- Simon Rosenberg's blog
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