Key Elements of Democratic Coalition Showing Continued 2010 Weakness

In preparing for my talk at the Campaign for America's Future Conference later this morning, I checked some April data on the vote intention of what I called the "under performing" Democratic coaltion with the latest Daily Kos Weekly Tracking Poll data.  Here it is:

April 22nd, June 3rd Daily Kos Weekly Track

                Obama Favorability        Vote Intent (%)

All                      54/51                       27/25

Women              65/59                        25/23

Black                  92/88                        18/16

Latino                 72/67                        19/16

18-29                 66/63                        18/13

To be clear what this quick analysis shows over the last two months key Democratic groups have had their feelings towards the President, and the their stated intention to vote in 2010, drop equal to or greater than the electorate as a whole. The drop in favorability with women, and in vote intent for Millennials, was particularly pronounced.  But there is no good news in here.  Honestly, I was surpised by these findings.

Our spring report on the coalitions of the two political parties found weakness in core Democratic groups key to the powerful new Democratic Coalition built in recent years   What the Kos track tells you is that if anything this trend has worsened, significantly, and if unaddressed, could contribute to a disapointing set of fall elections for party in power.