Hispanic Voters' Preferences Unchanged Post-Arizona Law

UPDATE: UPON FURTHER REVIEW OF THE RECENT GALLUP POLL ON HISPANICS AND SB1070 I HAVE DERIVED A MORE COMPLETE ANALYSIS PLEASE SEE MY NEW POST HERE.

There has been much written about how Arizona's immigration legislation SB1070 would affect Hispanic Voter turnout in the 2010 Mid-Terms.

Some have opined that it would negatively affect Hispanic turnout for the Mid-Terms.

Others have said that it would tip the national Hispanic vote further away from Republicans.

Gallup has just released a poll that shows both of these assumptions are incorrect.

Public Policy Poling, released some polling way back towards the end of April, that showed in Arizona both the Senatorial and Gubernatorial Democratic candidates received some bumps up among Hispanic voters.

Nationally it seems that Hispanic voters are more or less where they were before the passage of SB1070.

The Gallup Poll below shows that Hispanics nationally were wary of GOP candidates before and are just as wary after the passage of SB1070:

Many people also thought that SB1070 would motivate Hispanics to vote in higher numbers to express their anger over the law.

This assumption has also been rendered moot... Much like voting preference, enthusiasm has remained the same. Hispanics are more or less as enthusiastic about voting as they were before the law passed.

This polling is clearly not the last word on how Hispanics will vote in the Mid-Terms. Political prognisticators will not truly know what the effect of SB1070 had on the Hispanic electorate until after the Mid-Terms are over. Even after the dust has settled there will be a debate as to what the polling data tells us.

However from the outset of all of this one thing is clear:

Hispanics will come out and vote.

It is important to lay to rest the notion that Hispanics do not consistantly vote in elections. Hispanics have consistently increased their voter turnout in each of the successive Presidential and Midterm elections. 

For a more comprehensive historical voting trends be sure to check out Hispanic Rising 2010. And stay tuned here for more demographic analysis as we get closer to the Mid-Terms.