Addendum: A Word on Voter Intent and the 2010 Mid-Terms

In my last post I presented a recent Gallup Poll on Hispanic Voter turnout and SB1070.  While it is still too early to draw any firm conclusions from these polls, upon further reflection, there is a more comprehensive analysis worth presenting. Again direct your attention to the poll below.

There are two very important data points to highlight here.

First, this poll shows a very clear rise in Hispanic Voter intent. The aggregate increase in Hispanic voter intent, from the very enthusiastic and somewhat enthusiastic, is a 4 percentage point swing upwards in just three months.

As NDN President Simon Rosenberg has pointed out Hispanic voter intent has been down all year. In the last Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll Hispanic voter intent had dropped from 19 percent to 16 percent, from April 22 to June 3rd.  Given the context of this precipitous voting intent drop off, a four percent swing up is significant.

Secondly, while there has been an absolute increase in Hispanic voter intent there has also been a relative increase compared to non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic black voters.  While both of these voting groups  intent remains stagnant or decreased Hispanics are showing an increase.

If voter intent among this block of voters continues to increase this could significantly effect elections in places with high concentrations of Hispanic immigrant voters, particularly Arizona, California, Nevada and Texas.  We will keep our eye on these trends as they develop, but what this poll shows is that there is evidence now of a national Hispanic reaction to the awful situation in Arizona.