Joel Kotkin's The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050
As part my introduction to the NDN world, and in anticipation of our Friday event, Simon tasked me with reading Joel Kotkin's The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050. You can imagine my excitement. I mean, what's sexier than demography? And yet Kotkin has a knack for making complex and data-heavy concepts accessible and - don't mock me - exciting.
Kotkin begins with an introduction to America's current and forthcoming demographic shifts (in diversity of age, ethnicity, race and country of origin) and then delves into an unapologetically optimistic analysis of how those shifts -particularly America's youthfulness - will transform our shared future and allow America to maintain its place as a world leader. On a local level, Kotkin explores migration within America, and examines how suburbs and city-centers will change to accommodate such growth, as well as the green technology critical to sustaining a population that needs to learn to do more with less. That last bit might sound daunting, but here's Kotkin's main point, offered like a reassuring parent or partner: we'll do what we need to do, as we've always done, and we'll be great. We should be aware of the possible pitfalls, but we shouldn't worry. In fact, we should step back and marvel at America's unlimited potential.
Of particular note is how Kotkin's views defy the panic and paranoia of those who suggest that America grows at its own peril. Kotkin views our growth and corresponding diversity as an asset that will "drive our economic resilience." In this way, The Next Hundred Million is the ultimate antidote to the far Right's assertion that Latinos and immigrants are changing America for the worse.
If Kotkin's book is as spot-on as it seems, then I have seen a snapshot of the future, and I gotta say: it looks pretty good.