Conservative Economics Not Making a Comeback

Simon and Rob have weighed in quite a bit this morning on what the elections mean for the country and the Obama agenda. As they both stress, the biggest thing this election means is that focusing on an economic plan for the country must be the top priority. What's important to note is that this is nothing new. NDN has been arguing since 2006 that the volatility in the electorate was due to economic conditions. Exit polls from that year bear the argument out, even though most pundits at the time thought Iraq was the key issue. Here's NDN's analysis of 2006 exit polls:

-  The economy was the most important issue.  The exit poll asked voters if they considered various issue important in deciding their vote.  If you add up those  who responded - where issues were extremely, very, or somewhat important - the economy comes out number one.

Table 1: Which issue was most important?

Issue	Extremely Important	Very Important	Somewhat Important	Total
Economy	39%	43%	14%	96%
Corruption	41%	33%	18%	92%
Iraq	35%	32%	21%	88%
Terrorism	39%	33%	20%	82%
Moral Values	36%	21%	20%	77%

-  Economy Crucial in Battleground States.  The economy played a critical role in the key battleground states that decided the election.  In these areas the results could not be clearer: the economy was the number one issue.  The exit poll asked voters in key swing states about Iraq and the Economy.  In each swing state more voters thought the economy was either "extremely important" or "very important" in their decision over who to vote for their senator.

Table 2: Economy vs Iraq in Key Senate Races

	Economy	Iraq
Missouri	83%	62%
Montana	82%	65%
Ohio	83%	66%
Pennsylvania	81%	68%
Virginia	82%	69%

All this in much better economic times, so it comes as no surprise that exit polls from yesterday show that the economy was the dominant issue. Barack Obama continues poll much better on economic issues than do Republicans (according to a recent Pew poll, 57 percent of Americans are optimistic Obama's policies will improve the economy) and, as Simon pointed out, Republican solutions such as tax caps were voted down in two states last night. So there's little to make me believe that conservative economics is making a comeback and little to make me believe that the cheap populism of Glenn Beck (and his mentee Hoffman in NY-23) works either.

What is clear to me is that the most catastrophic thing for nervous Democrats could do before 2010 is believe that either are paths to success. The fact is that Democrats have a phenomenal historic record on the economy, and Republicans delivered eight years of wage stagnation, median income decline, and exploding health care and energy costs. Focusing on policies that address this issues, which are at the heart of the struggle of everyday Americans, is the key to victory when the polls really matter.