The Grades are in: For the President an A, For Congressional Democrats an Incomplete

After enduring the rancorous dog days of August, last week was a good one for President Obama. It began with his talk to America's young people. Faced with charges from paranoid conservatives and Republicans that he was attempting to indoctrinate school children with a radical and foreign message, the president simply asked kids to study hard, stay in school, get good grades, and be unwilling to accept failure. His words likely inspired many of the students to whom they were addressed while at the same time making his opponents appear silly, if not downright bizarre.

But the capstone of the president's week was his address to a joint session of Congress in which he detailed his plan to reform America's health care system. In his speech, President Obama described his plan's benefits, addressed the legitimate concerns of Americans about the major changes the plan would bring, rebutted the distorted charges of his opponents, and inspired his allies with an emotional appeal to enact the plan as a posthumous memorial to Senator Ted Kennedy.

The end result was a rise in Obama's poll numbers. The first to report were CNN and the Democracy Corps, both of which questioned voters before the president's congressional address and then again immediately afterward. Because, not surprisingly, Democrats were more likely to watch Obama's speech than Republicans, the CNN survey somewhat oversampled Democratic identifiers. Even so, considering that Obama's approval ratings had declined seriously among Democrats over the summer, the results were encouraging for the president. CNN found that three-quarters (77%) of those who watched the speech had a positive reaction to it overall, with 56% being very positive.  Nearly as many (72%) believed that Obama clearly stated the goals for his health care plan in his speech. As a result, the president's numbers improved significantly on a number of key items. After the address, 70% believed that Barack Obama's policies would move the country in the right direction as compared with 60% who felt that way before. Most important, the number favoring the president's health care reform plan rose sharply to 67% from 53%.

The Democracy Corps used electronic dials to gauge the perceptions of 50 "independent and weak partisan" voters in Denver before, during, and immediately after President Obama's speech. Those who participated in the Democracy Corps research were about evenly divided among those who initially supported and opposed the president's health care reform plan and McCain and Obama voters. Among these swing voters, support for Obama's plan rose 20 points (from 46% before the address to 66% after). Moreover, attitudes toward specific aspects of the plan improved sharply following the address.

Health Care Reform Description

Pre-Speech Describes

Pre-Speech Does Not Describe

Post-Speech Describes

Post-Speech Does Not Describe

Change In Describes

Will get health care costs under control

42%

46%

64%

36%

+22

Allows you to keep your current insurance and doctor if you choose

54%

32%

80%

18%

+26

Will increase competition and lower prices for health care

44%

42%

74%

24%

+30

Will give individuals and families more choice and control

36%

58%

60%

36%

+24

Government-run health care

60%

32%

46%

54%

-14

Will increase the deficit and raise taxes

62%

26%

40%

44%

-22

Will hurt seniors by cutting Medicare

40%

32%

20%

66%

-20

So far the afterglow from President Obama's speech has had legs. On the Gallup daily tracking of his job performance, the president's approval versus disapproval margin has gone up from nine percentage points to thirteen since his address. In the public survey with the most consistently Republican tilt, the Rasmussen Reports, the number who strongly approve of Obama's performance is up five points since the speech while those who strongly disapprove is down four. Overall, after spending nearly all of August on the downside, a slight majority is now positive about the job President Obama is doing (52% vs. 48%). These are the president's highest marks in the Rasmussen surveys since mid-July.

CNN-Opinion Research survey conducted with a representative national sample over the weekend after Obama's address provides even greater detail-and more good news. That survey indicates that the president's approval score rose five points since late August (to 58% from 53%). During the same period, Obama's approval rating is up solidly for his handling of specific policy areas: the federal budget deficit (+10 points); taxes (+7); health care policy (+7); the economy (+5); and, foreign affairs (+4). Finally, undoubtedly as a direct result of his address to congress, a majority now favors rather than opposes Obama's plan to reform health care (51% vs. 46%). Most important, strong opposition to the president's plan declined by nine percentage points since CNN last polled on the matter.

But the biggest jump in Barack Obama's poll ratings came in the Daily Kos weekly tracking survey. In just one week, the president's overall favorable to unfavorable margin improved by eight percentage points (favorable up 4 points and unfavorable down 4). Obama's favorable marks week-to-week improved in virtually very demographic and political group except among Republicans. However, the biggest gains came within Democratic core groups including Millennials (young people born 1982-2003), Latinos, residents of the Northeast, and Democratic identifiers. This suggests that, after a period of drift during the summer, what President Obama said last week, especially in his health care reform address, reinforced his base. There is little doubt that Democrats are simply glad that the president is sounding like the man they put in the White House last November.

 

Favorable

 8/31-9/3

Favorable

9/7-9/10

Week-to-Week Change

Total electorate

52%

56%

+4

Sex

 

 

 

Male

44%

50%

+6

Female

60%

62%

+2

Age

 

 

 

18-29

74%

80%

+6

30-44

42%

44%

+2

45-59

58%

64%

+6

60+

40%

42%

+2

Party ID

 

 

 

Democrat

77%

85%

+8

Republican

4%

4%

¾

Independent

57%

60%

+3

Region

 

 

 

Northeast

76%

83%

+7

South

26%

28%

+2

Midwest

59%

63%

+4

West

56%

60%

+4

Unfortunately, President Obama's Democratic colleagues in Congress did not share in the week's polling upswing. The Daily Kos survey indicates that the favorable ratings of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and congressional Democrats overall were essentially unchanged during a week in which the president registered significant gains. Perhaps it is for this reason that GOP consultants are telling Republican candidates to attack congressional Democrats, rather than President Obama, in the 2010-midterm elections. (http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/09/gop_in_2010_focus_on_dems_in_congress_not_on_obama.php)

 It seems clear that the public, even the Democratic base, is taking a wait and see attitude about inside-the-Beltway Democrats other than President Obama. The coming months will determine whether or not the Democratic majority in Congress is prepared to do the job that it was sent to Washington to do and, among other things, at long last enact meaningful health care reform. This week's polling numbers suggest that would not only be good for America, but also for congressional Democrats. Let's hope they're paying attention.

Michael D. Hais is an NDN Fellow and co-author, with Morley Winograd, of Millennial Makeover: MySpace, You Tube, and the Future of American Politics, named one of the ten favorite books of 2008 by the New York Times.