Who is Winning in Iran?

Reports of how many protesters showed up in Haft-e-Tir square today to mourn the death of Neda have been varied, ranging from 200 up to about 1,000. Regardless, this is a steep drop from last week's rallies with tens, perhaps even hundreds of thousands of protesters taking to the streets.  It seems like there are a few things going on here:

-  Saturday's protests resulted in ten deaths, and looking at video from the past few days makes it clear that we're no longer looking at the quiet, peaceful sit-ins of the first days after the election. On top of this, as we read last week, the government has deployed squads of thugs-- Basijis, they're called-- who track protesters during the day, and raid their homes at night. Undoubtedly, people are scared, and are staying home for the sake of survival.

-  According to Iran's state media, 457 people were arrested on Saturday-- undoubtably many of the leaders of the uprising are currently behind bars. Combine this with Mousavi's relatively quiet leadership, and it's possible that the organizational structure of the uprising has been crippled.

-  The Revolutionary Guards have stepped up their game, apparently. On Saturday, we saw video of riot police being chased away by a crowd of protesters.  Today, they showed up in overwhelming force, firing bullets in the air, opening tear gas canisters, and supported by helicopters overhead. The Guards made no secret of their plans to crack down, so people knew to stay away.

After a quiet Sunday and an ineffective protest on Monday, it's possible the truly massive demonstrations are behind us.  For the sake of their democratic movement, I hope the momentum can be swung back in favor of the protesters.