Getting Ready for Tomorrow: Election and Political Analysis from NDN

Submitted by Simon Rosenberg on 11/3/08

There can no longer be any doubt that tomorrow's election will usher in a new era of American political history. Barack Obama is likely to win with the highest vote share of any Democrat since 1964. Democrats will have more ideological control of Congress than at any time since the 1960s. The Republicans and conservatives are out of ideas and politically discredited—more so than at any time since the 1930s. Senator Obama is winning the election with a 21st century coalition that could be the basis of a sustained and durable majority for the Democratic Party, similar to the one FDR built more than 70 years ago. The map Democrats are using to win is a 21st century map, one that looks like no other they've ever used to win before, one that itself is the first great map of the post-southern strategy era of American politics.

To help the NDN family prepare for this historic election, we have assembled the best of our political analysis from the past several years. These pieces cover the main arguments coming from NDN: The end of the conservative ascendancy and the dawn of a "new politics," the emergence of new voting groups like the Millennials and Hispanics, the power that a whole array of new media and technology tools are unleashing into our democracy, and old-fashioned number crunching and analysis on everything from the role of independents, the economy and video in the elections. We've also included some of our analysis from the election of 2006, a day that saw the end of the conservative era, and set the stage for tomorrow's election, which will mark the beginning of a new one.

These are exciting times for those of us in the center-left of American politics. I hope you find this compendium helpful tomorrow and over the next few weeks as we all look to make sense of this truly historic election.

Election and Political Analysis from NDN:

11/3/08: Winograd and Hais Predict Millenial Makeover: NDN Fellows Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais argue that tomorrow, Millenials will make their voices heard and fundamentally realign the electorate.

11/1/08: Still No Evidence McCain Is In This Thing: With days to go before the election, there’s little reason to believe John McCain even has a shot.

10/31/08: Keys to the Fall: What explains John McCain's complete collapse and Barack Obama's meteoric rise in the final months of the campaign?

10/19/08: $150 Million, 3.1 Million Supporters and 100,000 in St. Louis: Obama’s candidacy has inspired a "virtuous cycle of participation," empowering millions of people who had never before engaged in the political system.

8/17/08: Making the Struggle of Everyday People the Central Focus of the National Debate: The Democratic Party must make the well-being of everyday people its central purpose and argument.

8/15/08: More Evidence of a Sustained Progressive Revival: The Obama campaign has shown dedication to building a lasting progressive movement driven by a powerful ground operation and extensive use of online media.

6/25/08: Old Man McCain: Throughout this campaign, John McCain has proven to be one of the weakest candidates we’ve seen in decades. (More here, here and here)

5/30/08: Hispanics Rising II: This comprehensive study tracks the rising political power of America's fastest growing minority group, and the role immigration reform has played in its political alignment.

1/4/08: On Obama, Race and the End of the Southern Strategy: By looking to younger voters, minority voters, and Western voters, the Democratic Party can move beyond the southern strategy that, for so long, has been the only way Democrats knew how to win.

11/2/07: National Poll – Americans' Views of the Present and Future Economy: Long before the financial meltdown, national polling uncovered deep anxiety about the national economy and a hunger for change. (More here)

11/1/07: "The 50-year Strategy: A New Progressive Era," in Mother Jones: With a fresh argument and a strong, diverse coalition, the stage has been set for a lasting progressive majority.

4/12/07: "The Democratic Opportunity," in Politico: In addition to speaking the languages of a changing electorate, Democrats must develop a new agenda that is not just a rejection of conservatism, but could itself provide effective solutions to some of the new challenges we face in a new century.

11/7/06: A Day of Reckoning for the Conservative Movement: The 2006 elections marked the end of conservative ascendancy. These essays look at how this shift can be explained by historical trends, hard electoral data, and recent decisions made by leaders of both parties. (More here, here and here)

10/29/06: The TV Ads Feel Different, and Are: Thanks to the proliferation of high-speed Internet and the technology enabling video to be recorded on cell phones, candidates are ever-more accountable for what they say on the campaign trail.

3/7/06: Foreword to Crashing the Gate: Throughout the Bush presidency, we have witnessed ever-increasing evidence that the conservative governing philosophy has, fundamentally, failed.