NDN Blog

The 2010 Candidates: A Demographic Analysis

That the American population is changing is beyond doubt. But what about the candidates we choose to run for higher office? The clear majority of Congressional and gubernatorial candidates are white men, but white men are a clear minority within the United States. To see if (and how) this pattern is changing, we researched how many minorities, women, and Millennials are candidates for Congress or governor in 2010 and then broke down these results by party, incumbency, and district. Our report is here.

The results are predictable in some ways and surprising in others. It shouldn’t shock anyone to find out that nearly 70 percent of all woman, minority, and Millennial candidates are Democrats. Among incumbents running for reelection, the Democrats have an even stronger advantage (100 percent of African-American incumbents are Democrats, for example). Republicans, on the other hand, are running more minority, woman, and Millennial challengers than incumbents. This points the way towards a more diverse party that we can’t see when looking just at the current Republican caucus.

The GOP has made particular strides among woman and Hispanic candidates. Forty-three percent of all female challengers are Republicans, while only 22 percent of all female incumbents are Republicans.

And while Democrats are running far more Hispanic incumbents, Republicans have an outright majority among all Hispanic challengers running for office in 2010. Some Hispanic Republican challengers are in high-profile races, such as the Florida Senate race in which Marco Rubio is the GOP candidate, but others are simply running for Congressional seats in the Southwest.

Simon and Kristian have written about the potential for a Latino backlash against the Republican Party after Arizona’s SB1070 immigration law and the more recent calls among national politicians to revise the 14th Amendment. Can that backlash coexist with more Hispanic Republican candidates? It’s unclear for now—although the Congressional elections in two years will occur in redrawn districts based on the information from the 2010 Census. New districts based on new demographic realities will probably provide us with a better idea of where American politics will go in the next decade.

In the meantime, even though primary season isn’t over yet, this report should provide a good overview of who is running for office this year. The news is mostly good for both parties—Democrats maintain their lead and Republicans are running a more diverse slate of candidates—but the numbers also indicate that we’ve got a ways to go before we eliminate the gap between woman, minority, and Millennial candidates and citizens.

Again, look at the full report here. Thanks for reading.

Simon on Fox News re Fiscal Policy

Last week Simon went on Fox News to talk about fiscal policy with Neil Cavuto. He brought a refreshingly nuanced view to the debate over whether to let the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy expire.

The Future of Liberalism: Thoughts From Across the Pond

Over in Great Britain, the Conservative Party has recently retaken power after 13 years of being in opposition. Prime Minister David Cameron's "Big Society" program is making waves among Tories who see it as a way to build a more pluralistic party while avoiding the economic callousness of Margaret Thatcher or the culture wars of American social conservatives.

So with the Conservatives back in the saddle and no sign of this nonsense ending anytime soon, where does the Labour Party go? Our friends at the British think tank Demos have put together a fascinating pamphlet titled Labour's Future, in which a number of thinkers set out their ideas for the future of the British center-left. The essayists come from different backgrounds (some are Parliament members and others are activists and professors), but in different ways, they all seem to have coalesced around the idea that Labour needs to rebuild from the bottom up.

The main theme I'm sensing in these essays is that the Labour Party under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown became too reliant on the centralized state and a top-down approach to government, too cozy with private industry and not protective enough of everyday citizens, and too tethered to the assumption that the economy would just keep growing and growing. Whether they're calling for a greater emphasis on local services, a renewed commitment to the Labour Party's principles of class solidarity, or a more equitable relationship between markets and people, the writers all seem committed to seriously reimagining the role of the political center-left.

The debates in Labour's Future mirror the debates NDN has been trying to encourage among American liberals: Questions of economic policy, individual responsibility, and grassroots political involvement all come up often. Simon has done work with Demos and has spoken very highly of them, and after reading these essays, I'm inclined to agree that there's a really healthy discussion going on. Check out the pamphlet, linked above, or visit Demos' general website at www.demos.co.uk. Nothing this exciting has happened in England since the invention of chicken tikka masala.

Simon Rosenberg on Fox News: Will Rangel's Ethics Charges Sink Dems?

Simon went on Fox News this past weekend to talk about the Democrats' prospects for the 2010 elections. In light of most polls showing a significant swing back towards the Democrats on the generic party ballot, he discussed whether Charlie Rangel's and Maxine Waters' ethics troubles will influence the midterm results.

Alicia on Fox News: With Most of SB1070 Gone, What's Next?

Yesterday, an Arizona judge ruled that the most controversial portions of Arizona's immigration law SB 1070 were unconstitutional. The controversy isn't going anywhere, though. Alicia went on Fox News this morning to talk about what might come next from Arizona and the Obama administration.

Alicia Menendez on MSNBC: DISCLOSE Act and Andrew Breitbart

Two disappointing pieces of news yesterday: The Senate failed to pass the DISCLOSE Act due to a Republican filibuster, and word got out that Andrew Breitbart has been invited to headline an RNC fundraiser in August. Alicia went on MSNBC's Dylan Ratigan Show yesterday afternoon to discuss.


Tune in at 4 pm! Alicia Menendez on MSNBC

If you're near a TV in half an hour (4 p.m. Eastern time), be sure to go to MSNBC. NDN's Alicia Menendez will be on the Dylan Ratigan Show for a lively debate.

This afternoon's topics will include the DISCLOSE Act, which has passed the House and is expected to come to a Senate vote today or tomorrow, and the RNC's recent decision to invite blogger Andrew Breitbart to headline a fundraiser with Michael Steele next month.

Simon on Fox News: Obama and the BP Fallout

Earlier this afternoon, Simon went on Fox News to talk about the Obama administration's response to the Gulf oil spill. Check out the clip:


Simon on Fox News in 30 minutes! Tune in! / Alicia on Fox News this past Sunday! Tune in!

In about 30 minutes, at 2:30 Eastern time, NDN's President Simon Rosenberg will be on Fox News to talk about the Obama administration's response to the oil spill and the achievements it ought to take credit for. Be sure to check it out!


And this past Sunday morning, Alicia went on Fox and Friends to talk about the Democrats' plan to let the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans expire. Rolling back the tax cuts will reduce the deficit by 25 times the amount that continuing unemployment benefits will add to the deficit.

NDN's Alicia Menendez on Larry King Live

Last night Alicia made the jump from daytime cable news to Larry King Live, where she participated on a four-person panel that covered a number of topics including the Tea Party and unemployment benefits in the Senate. It was a long discussion, so it's posted here in four parts:




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