2022 Election And Political Analysis
Election and political analysis has been a major program area for NDN over many years now. Here you can our work on the new Biden era, Trump's failed efforts to overthrow the 2020 election, the 2020 general election and Democratic primary and detailed geographic/demographic analysis.
You can also find NDN’s analysis in various recent articles and pods here.
Biden, A New Day
Memo: On This 2022 Election Eve Would Rather Be Us Than Them - 11/7/22 - Dems are crushing it in the early vote, the red wave has yet to materialize, and polls this past week were on balance good for Dems.
We'd rather be us than them.
A Good Week of Politics and Polling for Dems (10/10/22) - With GA melting down, generics moving our way, good polls in PA, huge cash hauls and women continuing to register in very high numbers this has been a very good polling and political week for Dems.
2022 Election Analysis: 5 Weeks To Go, It Is A Very Competitive Election - 10/3/22 - With 5 weeks to go we'd rather be us than them - Dems are favored to keep the Senate, have a clear shot in the House, Biden's approval has jumped more than 10 points and women are voting and registering to vote at very elevated levels.
Video: Tom Bonier on The Surge of Women Voting/Registering Post-Roe (9/14/22) - Come watch a timely discussion of an important new development in the 2022 election - the surge of women registering to vote and voting. If this trend holds it could have a big impact on 2022.
Video: NDN's New, Bluer Election Presentation (9/8/22) - We are pleased to share a recording of "New, Bluer Election" presentation. It's 25 minutes of encouraging data. Do watch, feel free to share with others and remember - we got a shot my friends.
Analysis: Dems w/2.4 Point Lead in 17 Polls - It's A Competitive Not A Wave Election 7/20/22 - 14 independent polls taken since Roe ended show the Democrats ahead in the Congressional Generic. It is a new bluer, election now.
Video: A New, Bluer Election - A Presentation About The Changing National Political Landscape - 7/8/22 - In a new 20 minute presentation Simon reviews recent polling data which shows an improving national political landscape for Democrats. All talk of a wave must end - it's a competitive election now.
Analysis: Democrats Make Big Gains in 3 New Polls – It’s A New Election - 6/28/22 - Three new polls show the election swinging towards the Democrats. It is a new election. The chances of the anti-MAGA majority showing up again - as it did in 2018 and 2020 - have increased dramatically.
Analysis: Red Wave? Hard To See One Now - 6/21/22 - Any fair read of current data in the big statewide races makes this look far more like a competitive election than a wave. This is particularly true in the Senate, where Dems now have the edge.
The Strategic Context For The 2022 Elections Is Changing - 5/31/22 - Russia’s ongoing aggression, mass shootings, the end of Roe, a more complete understanding of MAGA’s attack on our political system are together creating a new strategic framework or context for US politics, the 2022 elections.
NDN’s Saliency Index 5 – Jobs/Economy, Inflation, Health Care, Climate Change Top Dem Concerns - Our latest analysis finds that in the Dem electorate jobs/economy, inflation, health care and climate are top of mind. Among Republicans its inflation, jobs/economy, immigration, national security.
Memo: The Remarkable Success of the Democratic Party's Hispanic Strategy - 5/18/22 - Over the past 20 years the gains Democrats have made with Hispanic voters has transformed the Democratic Party and the nation. It may very well be the most successful party-wide strategy in recent Democratic Party history.
With Roe Vote 2022 Is Now a Choice Election - 5/3/22 - With the coming end of Roe the anti-MAGA majority in the US has been given a very vivid reminder why they need to once again vote and keep America's far right from gaining further power.
The Center-Left Rises in the West, The Right Is In Retreat - 4/25/22 - The political space for the Putin allied far right is disapearing in the West, and a new center-left of liberals, social democrats and greens is rising. Can US Republicans buck the trend in 2022?
Some Thoughts on Democrats and "Loudness" - 4/18/22 - In a new memo about the current political landscape and the 2022 elections, Simon offers three reasons why, despite Biden's current polling dip, the 2022 mid-terms are likely to be much more competitive than conventional wisdom holds right now.
NDN’s Saliency Index, 4th Edition – COVID, Economy Top Issues, Inflation Secondary For Dems - 2/22/22 - In the 4th edition of our new Saliency Index, we find the top issues for voters in the Democratic elecorate to be COVID, jobs and the economy, health care and climate. In the analysis we discuss why inflation may be a seconday concerns for Democratic voters right now.
“Mr Biden, Your Good Economy Won’t Sell Itself” – On Selling the Biden Boom - 2/21/22 - In the past few weeks NDN's thoughts on the path forward for Joe Biden/Dems have been cited in the WaPo, NYTimes, the Cook Report and other top media outlets. We've put this recent impacful work all in one place to make it easier for you to access. Enjoy!
Memo: Dems Need To Focus On Winning The Economic Argument 1/27/22 - Despite decades of strong economic stewardship, Ds trail Rs on perceptions of who can best manage the economy. It is our belief that closing that gap, and even getting ahead of Republicans on this vital measure is now the highest political priority for Dems in the coming months.
Saliency Index #3 – COVID concerns rising, inflation still secondary concern in Dem electorate - 12/17/21 - In the new edition of our Saliency Index, we find rising concerns about COVID in both the Dem and GOP electorates. Inflation while a major concern with Rs remains a secondary concern in the Democratic coalition.
Defeating COVID Remains Job #1 - 11/26/21 - We think it is time for the President to a do prime time check in with the American people about COVID. Review the progress which has been made, talk about the challenges ahead, lay out the plan for defeating it here and everywhere.
My Warning To Dems About MAGA and Schools This Fall - 11/2/21 - In July Simon warned Democratic Party officials that MAGA was going to wage a huge war around schools this fall, and we needed to be ready. We weren't.
Memo: 3 Reasons Why 2022 Won’t Be 2010 - 11/1/21 - In a new memo about the current political landscape and the 2022 elections, Simon offers three reasons why, despite Biden's current polling dip, the 2022 mid-terms are likely to be much more competitive than conventional wisdom holds right now.
Catch Simon on That Trippi Show, In The Atlantic, Politico and More - 10/6/21 - Simon's big strategy memo "Time for Dems to Come Together" got a lot of attention this week. You can read the stories or listen to Simon talk about it on pods and in a TV interview.
Memo: Time for Dems To Come Together - 10/6/21 - Since the debate over the President's post-ARP agenda began, the President's approval rating has dropped almost 15 points, endangering Dem 2022 election prospects. It is time now for all Democrats to come together and end this debilitating, rancerous period.
Memo: 2022 Dem Election Narrative Begins to Take Shape - 9/16/21 - An early version of a possible Dem election narrative has begun to emerge - Dems tackle the big challenges, GOP too radical and extreme to once again trust with power.
Memo: After Texas Roe decision, Dems must lean into GOP radicalization - 9/2/21 - The Supreme Court's Texas Roe decision is so shocking and crazy that Democrats have no choice now to make the dangerous radicalization of the GOP central to the conversation they are having with the American people.
Memo: A Fall To Do List for Democrats - COVID, A Growing Economy, Climate, Immigration - 8/30/21 - In a new memo, Simon writes that Democrats have four priorities this fall - defeat COVID/improve health care, creating an economy which works for all, tackle climate change and modernize our an mmigration system.
Biden at 47% - 8/25/21 - Joe Biden has seen a nine point drop in his job approval rating over the last month. Much of it is due to his declining approval on COVID. Drawing from 2 recent essays, Simon offers some thoughts on what Biden can do now to reclaim his standing and win the fall.
Memo: A Stronger Response To Delta Is Required Now - 8/21/21 - In a new political memo, Simon reviews recent polling data and finds rising fears over delta, and growing support in the public for aggressive steps to stop its spread. The President should seize the moment and launch a stepped up campaign to defeat COVID once and for all.
Memo: Some Thoughts on Afghanistan, What Comes Next - 8/17/21 - While the endgame in Afghanistan has been a significant setback for the President, he should use these next few months to reacquint the American people with his forward looking agenda and make significant progress in enacting it.
Biden Should Consider "A Fireside Chat" About COVID - 8/4/21 - It may be time for a prime time Presidential address about COVID, a fireside chat, where Joe Biden can update us on the progress made, the challenges ahead and make clear what his plan is to defeat the pandemic here and everywhere.
Bold Action on Evictions, But Also A Reminder That Governing is Very Hard - 8/4/21 - The President told bold action this week to prevent mass evictions in the midst of a public health crisis, but the program's struggles should be prompt action to make sure all the President's ambitious programs are well designed, aggressively implemented and successful.
Memo: Some Thoughts on The Path Forward - 6/28/21 - In a new essay, Simon offers some thoughts on the path forward for the center-left as we head into the July 4th holiday. Three priorities now - defeat COVID, keep creating jobs, defend democracy. Get infrastructure to the President's desk by August.
Video: NDN Talks w/Norm Ornstein About Defending Democracy, GOP Radicalization (6/22/21) - Come watch a compelling conversation about the threats our democracy faces today with the great Norm Ornstein.
Memo: A Summer To Do List for Democrats - Defeat COVID, Defend Democracy, Keep Creating Jobs - 6/9/21 - Democrats have important work to do this summer - defeat COVID, defend democracy and make sure the American people know the recovery has come about through Joe Biden's smart and effective economic plans.
Learning To Talk about Democracy, Patriotism and the GOP’s Radicalization - 5/24/21 - It is time for the American center-left to recognize that defeating autocracy, perhaps the most intrinsically America project, begins this time here at home – and failure is not an option.
The GOP Chooses Autocracy Over Democracy - 5/12/21 - The ousting of Liz Cheney marks a dangerous moment in US politics - Republicans have now chosen to make MAGA, including its extremism and its denigration of democracy, it's political path forward.
Essay: Biden’s Pragmatism, Republican Extremism - 5/3/21 - In the first 100 days we've learned that Joe Biden understands the challenges America faces, and has offered detailed, concrete plans for how to address them.
Republicans, on the other hand, aren't fighting America's problems - they are just fighting Democrats.
Video: NDN Talks The Hispanic Vote w/Fernand Amandi (3/2/21) - Join us for an indepth look at the all important Hispanic vote with Fernand Amandi, pollster and a pioneer in creating campaigns to speak to Hispanic voters in the United States. It was a terrific discsusion - hope you can catch it soon.
Simon In The NYT on Dem Management of Their Senate Majority - 3/1/21 - In a new NYTimes analysis, Simon offers extensive commentary about the how the Democrats might be able to get their agenda through the Senate this cycle.
Video: NDN Talks w/Ari Berman About the War On Voting (2/23/21) - On Feb 23rd NDN hosted noted author Ari Berman for an indepth discussion about one of the most important issues of 2021 - the GOP's savage assault on voting in America. It was a great conversation - hope you will check it out.
Analysis: The Republicans Have An Off-Ramp - They Need to Take It - 1/13/21 - The choice for every Republican now is a binary one — drop the language of Trumpism, declare the election legitimate, tell the insurrections to stand down or become an insurrectionist, insurgent yourself.
Analysis: The Southwest Has Become A Democratic Stronghold - 12/9/21 - Democratic gains in the heavily Mexican-American parts of the country have been among the most important political developments in US politics over the past two decades. It is a region transformed, and a new center of power in the 21st century Democratic Party.
2020 Election
Every Thursday (and some Fridays) in 2020 NDN published its Poll Roundup, a deep dive into recent polling and political trends. Below is some of our late 2020 work. Feel free to review previous editions too.
Analysis: There's A Whole Lotta Voting Going On! - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 10/15/20 - Enormous numbers of people are voting early this year, in person and via mail. It is a welcome sign for our struggling democracy; and practically, all this voting is going to make it harder for Trump to manipulate the election outcome.
Analysis: It Has Been A Very Bad Week of Polling for Trump and the GOP - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 9/29/20 - Despite desperate tactics, Trump isn't gaining ground against Biden. If anything the race may be beginning to slip away.
Analysis: Is McConnell leading the GOP off an electoral and political cliff? - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 9/21/20 - Mitch McConnell's craven rush to replace RBG looks like a huge mistake, and raises further questions about whether McConnell's repeated mistakes this year is leading his conference off an electoral cliff.
Trump Is On An Electoral Crime Spree - Simon Rosenberg, Medium, 9/9/20 - The President has launched a breathtakingly broad effort to hold on to power through wide-scale cheating, treachery and illegal use of the US government to aide his campaign. Far more should be happening to make it stop.
Demographic/Geographic Analysis
Trump Has a Serious Young Voter Problem (Updated) - Simon Rosenberg, Medium, 9/25/20 - As more data comes in it's becoming clearer that Trump has a serious young voter problem. He's way below his 2016 numbers, and Biden's margin rivals the largest we've ever seen with 18-29 year olds in recent history.
Analysis: Should Dems Go For It? - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 7/10/20 - The Biden campaign faces a big strategy choice in the coming days - how manystates to play in? How big shoulld the battlefield be? Argument for going big is very compelling right now.
Americans Under 45 Are Breaking Hard Toward The Democrats - And For Good Reason - Simon Rosenberg and Chris Taylor, NDN, 8/2/19 - Among the most significant political developments of the Trump era is the dramatic shift of under 45 year old voters towards the Democrats.From 2000 to 2016 D margin w/under 45s was 6 points. In 2018 it was 25.
Dems Have Already Won Back Voters In The Rust Belt. It's Trump Who Needs To Win Them Back Now - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 6/5/19 - It is a myth that Trump's anti-immigrant and protectionist policies have made it difficult for Democrats to win in the Rust Belt in 2020. Trump is trailing badly there now raising questions about Trumpism itself has become a grand failure.
Notes On The GOP's Erosion In The Southwest - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 2/11/19 - The dramatic erosion of the GOP brand in the heavily Mexican-American parts of the country over the past two elections is one of the biggest stories in American politics. Trump's border extremism has cost the GOP dearly, and it hasn't kept the industrial north from slipping away.
In All Important Florida, Democrats Lost Ground With Hispanic Voters - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 11/9/18 - In a year when Democrats made gains with Hispanics across the nation, Florida Democrats saw their performance with Hispanics decline. Work has to be done to figure out why.
Among "New Coalition" Voters, Democrats Have Best Performance Ever - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 11/9/18. In the 2018 elections Democrats had their best showing ever with 18-29s, 18-44s and Asian-Americans, 2nd best with Hispanics. Bodes well for 2020 and many elections to come.
$38 Million For Beto, And Why It Matters - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 10/30/18 - Democrats have been raising a lot of money this cycle. This is not just about fear of Trump - it is about the broad adoption of a more authentic people based politics suited for the digital age championed by Dean, Obama, and yes even Trump himself.
More
Europe's Elections: Liberals and Greens Make Gains, Right Loses Ground - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 5/28/19 - In both Europe and the US, a new politics is emerging in opposition to the extremism of the far right. It emphasizes political pragmatism and the embrace of trade and immigration, while also focusing on the significant threat of climate change.
Democrats Must Demonstrate Greater Leadership In Challenging Trump's Ruinous Trade Policy - Simon Rosenberg, Twitter, 5/8/19 - Democrats should be more aggressive in challenging Trump’s tariffs and trade policies given the failure of those policies to achieve their objectives and growing discontent with them around the country.
Iowa, Trump, and the Politics of Globalization/Tariffs - Chris Taylor, NDN, 10/12/18 - Trump’s trade policies are hurting the Iowa economy. His tariffs are unpopular there, and his party is performing badly in the fall elections. Some thoughts on what this means for the Democratic presidential race starting soon.
Media Citations: You can find NDN in recent stories about the national political landscape in the AP, Hearst Media/San Antonio Express News, NBC News, Washington Monthly and Washington Post (here, here, here). Our most important recent citations are below.
Joe Biden Identifies The No. 1 Threat: Trump - Greg Sargent, The Washington Post, 4/25/19 - Key passage: As Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who worked on House races in 2018, told me, Democrats realized that both Democratic and swing voters wanted candidates who offered a "safe port in a storm" at a moment of perceived extreme danger in the form of Trump, which is why Democrats recruited many candidates with records of accomplishment and an aura of solidity and competence.
The Biggest Field Yet. No Frontrunner. A Divided Base. Welcome To The 2020 Democratic Primary - Molly Ball and Philip Elliott, Time Magazine, Cover Package, 2/21/19 - Key passage: “The Democratic Party is going through a very large transformation,” says party operative Simon Rosenberg, who’s backed the winning candidate in every primary since 1988 but has no favorite this time. “The era of Clinton and Obama is ending and ceding to a new set of dynamics. A new Democratic Party is being forged in front of our eyes.”
This Is Why Republicans And Democrats Aren't Talking To Each Other In Washington - Ron Brownstein, CNN, 1/8/19 - Key passage: "It's fair to say that the House campaign in 2018 executed on a politics that we first saw with Obama in 2007 and 2008: It aligned the House with the way that Obama began to reorient the Democratic Party," said Rosenberg, who consulted with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee through the campaign. "There were many people who were saying that Obama's embrace of this new coalition [that was younger, more diverse, better-educated, and more urbanized] was the cause of Democratic decline in the Senate and the House. It was never true. But what was true was that Democrats had never resigned themselves to having to lean into this new coalition that Obama constructed. Now they did in 2018 -- they leaned into it -- and look what happened."