Paid for by NDN.
Miami Cubans Hail Close of Castro Era, Expect Democracy Soon
by Joe Garcia, NDN Senior Vice-President and Director, NDN Hispanic Strategy Center
October 2, 2006
Click here to view or download the powerpoint presentation of the complete poll results (PDF)
The influential South Florida Cuban exile community overwhelmingly believes that the era of Fidel Castro is over, and is newly hopeful for a speedy and peaceful transition to democracy, according to the first major poll taken since Castro’s hand-over of power due to illness.
The poll, released today by NDN and Bendixen and Associates, shows that 88% think that Castro will not return to power, while half of those polled expect democracy and liberation of Cuba within the next 5 years. More than three quarters want a peaceful and gradual transition.
The poll, reported in the Miami Herald, also shows declining support for travel and other restrictions against Cuba, and a new openness to consider creative means of engaging the people of Cuba and its government to accelerate democratization.
72% said the United States should negotiate with any new Cuban government that was open to improving relations with the exile community and with the US. And while a slim majority approve of President Bush's handling of Cuba policy, a majority of more recent immigrants think that restrictions on travel and sending money to Cuba should be lifted, and over all support for the Embargo has shown a significant decline.
Sergio Bendixen, who conducted the poll, said: “Support for the trade embargo, restrictions on travel and restrictions on remittances have all dropped ten percentage points over the last year. Showing significant signs of political maturity, new ideas on how to deal with the Cuban situation are now well received by the Cuban exile community.”
Other Key Findings of the Poll:
- 74% think that Castro is terminally ill, while only 12% think he will recover and return to power.
- 85% think that there is now a major or minor probability of a transition towards democracy.
- 4 years is the average time expected for the arrival of democracy in Cuba, while just under half expect the
transition within 5 years.
- Only 16% of Cubans would return to a democratic Cuba, while 67% now believe that homes in Cuba should
remain in the hands of those living in them today, rather than reverting to their original owners.
Joe Garcia, Director of NDN’s Hispanic Strategy Center, said: “A "new day" is dawning for the Cuban people, US-Cuba relations, and our country’s relationship with the whole of Latin America. There is now overwhelming support from younger Cuban Americans for government to government negotiations.”
The poll sample was 600 Cuban and Cuban-American adults in Dade and Broward counties, and was conducted in both English and Spanish. The major findings of the poll can be found on the NDN website at www.ndn.org.
