Paid for by the NDN Political Fund.
NDN Political Fund Releases New Poll of Hispanic Voters (Click to See Video of the Event)
by Joe Garcia
July 19, 2006
Click here to watch the video >
SUMMARY
In a new national poll of Spanish-language dominant Hispanic voters, NDN’s Hispanic Strategy Center has found that the standing of President Bush and Republicans has dramatically declined with these critical swing voters, potentially wiping out Republican gains made during the Bush years.
While Republicans have suffered a great loss in their standing with this new important electorate, Democrats have made only modest gains and though well-liked are not well defined. To take advantage of this new opening, Democrats will need to invest resources to better define themselves to an electorate very open to hearing from them.
Additionally, the poll offers clear evidence that the immigration debate has increased this community’s participation in the civic life of their nation. More than half of those questioned say the issue will make it more likely that they will vote this year. A remarkable 25% of those surveyed state that they have taken part in recent public demonstrations for better immigration policies. It appears that millions of Hispanics are rising to the “today we march, tomorrow we vote” challenge offered by the leaders of community this year.
The poll, conducted by the New York-based market research firm LatinInsights, surveyed a 600-person national sample of Spanish-dominant Hispanic registered voters. It is the largest poll of Spanish-language dominant Hispanic voters we’ve come across. The poll was paid for by the NDN Political Fund.
A PowerPoint presentation with more complete data can be found Here.
BACKGROUND
About 9% of all American voters today are Hispanic. Of this 9%, about half, or 4-5% of the overall American electorate, is Spanish-language dominant. Spanish-language dominant means that these voters prefer to speak in Spanish, though many of these voters are English competent.
In the last three Presidential elections, the Dem/GOP share of the total Hispanic electorate has gone from 72%-21% to 62%-35% to 59%-40%. This extraordinary shift has made the Hispanic vote the fastest growing and perhaps the most volatile swing electorate in American politics.
Much of the movement towards the Republicans at a national level has come with Spanish language-dominant Hispanic voters. According to an analysis done by NDN and Bendixen and Associates, English-dominant Hispanics have stayed reliably Democratic, holding throughout this time at about a 2:1 ratio (2004: 65%-34%). The movement towards Bush has come from the Spanish-dominant, as they have gone from 82%-18% Clinton-Dole in 1996 to 52%-48% Kerry-Bush, while increasing from 30% of the Hispanic electorate in 1996 to 48% in 2004.
These remarkable swings help explain why we saw in 2004 the first fully engaged national Spanish-language campaign by the two parties and their allies. This year the only back and forth between using paid national advertising between the RNC and DNC has been on the issue of immigration, in Spanish.
KEY FINDINGS
Key Finding 1: Hispanics are disappointed with Bush and unhappy with Republican government. Recent electoral gains made by Bush in this community have been wiped out.
No matter how the numbers are cut, President Bush and the Republicans have seen a dramatic eroding of their standing with Spanish-speaking Hispanic voters.
In 2004 Kerry beat Bush 59%-40% with all Hispanics, and 52%-48% with those Spanish-dominant. In this survey Hispanics confirmed the closeness of the 2004 result. When asked who “did you vote for in 2004?” the result came back 38%-36% Kerry-Bush.
When asked how they would vote if the Presidential election were held today, this group gives Democrats a remarkable 36-point advantage (59%-23%). For Republicans this is a dramatic drop from the 52%-48% Kerry-Bush result with the Spanish-speaking sub-group in 2004.
Bush’s standing with this group has plummeted. In the 2004 cycle, Bush regularly received a 60% favorable rating from Hispanics. In our survey this was reversed, as 38% see him favorably, 58% unfavorably, with 40% very unfavorable towards the President.
Democrats have a very significant advantage in favorability, with a 65%-25% favorable/ unfavorable result. Republicans come in at 41%-51% favorable/unfavorable. For the first time in any Hispanic poll we’ve seen, The Republican Party is seen more favorably than Bush. It is would not be a stretch to now say that President Bush has become a drag on the Republican Party with Hispanics.
A full 61% of our survey group believes the country is headed in the wrong direction. Only 27% say it is headed in the right direction.
On the issue that they see to be of greatest concern to the nation, the Iraq War, 69 % (69-27) are against the current policy, with 48% wanting the U.S. to leave immediately.
On the issue of greatest concern to the Hispanic community as a whole – immigration reform – only 15% believe that the current debate will make it more likely they vote Republican. Overall, the number identifying immigration and discrimination as major issues have increased substantially from previous years.
Remarkably, 86% of Hispanics say that the cost of living has increased in recent years, with 78% saying costs have increased for their family. The economy is cited as the area of 2nd greatest concern to the nation after the Iraq War.
Of 20 major issues tested, Democrats outperform Republicans on 17, including “family values,” “better use of my tax money”and “respects more my religious beliefs.” The loss of faith of Republican government to achieve things of value for the Hispanic community should be a major concern to the governing Party.
Key Finding 2: While making modest gains, Democrats have a lot of work to do.
While Democrats have made modest gains with this group, growing from 52% in 2004 to 59%, most of the movement this year has been away from Bush and the Republicans and not towards Democrats.
In a detailed issue battery, while consistently far ahead of Republicans, Democrats regularly under perform their 59% electoral performance and 65% Party favorability. This indicates that while Democrats are well-regarded by this electorate, they are not well defined.
For example, let’s look at immigration reform. Despite the strong advocacy of Senator Harry Reid and other Democrats for comprehensive immigration reform and the wide coverage of the Republican efforts to deport undocumented Hispanic from the country, more Hispanics say that the immigration debate will not effect how they will vote this November – 41% - than say that that it makes it more likely they will vote Democratic – 36%.
Despite substantial leads in most issue areas, Republicans lead on “national security” and “terrorism,” and the Iraq War though unpopular, is now seen as the single most important issue facing the nation.
A detailed analysis of the 18% of the electorate who are currently undecided about which Party they would vote for if the Presidential election was held today – the next layer of opportunity for Democrats – finds this group very favorable to President Bush and wary of Democrats. While unhappy with the direction of the country, this group will not be an easy one for Democrats to make substantial gains with.
Key Finding 3: The immigration debate has had a tremendous impact with these voters, and will increase their turnout this fall.
This group now believes immigration reform is now the most important problem facing the Hispanic community, with 37% choosing that option, and 15% choosing a related issue, discrimination. Taken together, these two issues are seen as the most important concerns by 52% of those surveyed. The next highest issue is education with 8%. In the 2004 cycle, immigration rarely ranked in the 1st tier of concerns of Hispanics voters.
By a margin of 62% to 28%, Hispanics are in favor of immigration reform.
By more than a 2-1 margin (36%-15%), Hispanics believe the immigration debate makes it more likely that they will vote for Democrats in the fall.
In a remarkable show of civic participation, 25% say they participated in a recent rally or demonstration for a better immigration policy. 54% of all those surveyed say they are more likely to vote this fall because of the debate.
For more on NDN’s spring national Spanish-language advertising campaign on the immigration issue visit www.ndn.org.
Key Finding 4: Most Hispanics believe that it is harder to get ahead.
Consistent with national data showing median income decline and wages stagnant; rising health care, interest, energy and education costs; and the erosion of the purchasing power of the minimum wage, most Hispanics – an extraordinary 86% - say the cost of living has increased.
Economic issues are a major concern, with 17% identifying the economy as the greatest national concern, second only to the Iraq War.
Key Finding 5: Despite the perception that discrimination against Hispanics is widespread, Hispanics overwhelmingly believe there are greater opportunities here than in Latin America.
Even though 75% of respondents say that there is discrimination against Hispanics in the US, 91% believe there is much greater opportunity here than in Latin America.
Key Finding 6: Soccer – futbol - is a powerful way to reach Hispanics.
A remarkable 79% of all surveyed said they were paying attention to the World Cup soccer tournament; 74% said they planned to watch some of the tournament on TV, with 41% saying they were attempting to follow all or almost all of the games. Few events in any culture command this kind of universal and intense appeal.
These numbers are consistent with studies done by strategist Sergio Bendixen, which show 74% of all immigrant Hispanic males report that “soccer is my favorite sport,” a number which climbs to 91% if narrowed to immigrant males from Mexico and Central and South America.
Early analyses of the television and radio ratings of the World Cup on Spanish-language stations reinforce the cultural power of soccer with Hispanics. For example, even though Spanish speakers are only 5 percent of the total US population, Univision had a third of all those watching the World Cup final, an event which had more American viewers than the NBA Final that aired just a few weeks before.
Of those surveyed, Ronaldinho, the great star of Brazil, was the most popular player.
For more on the NDN Political Fund’s current national Spanish-language media campaign, “mas que un partido,” which uses this powerful sport of futbol to reach Hispanics, visit www.ndnfutbol.org.
