Logic Behind Our Estimate of Drop in Non-Criminal, Non-Border Deportations

In an essay that Simon and I wrote today, we estimated that in 2009 the number of non-criminal, non-border deportations was around 150,000. That estimate was based on the FY 2013 ICE report and this ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations document. For more on our calculations, see the following:

FY 2009 Estimated ICE Immigration Non-Criminal, Non-Border Removals

  • ICE reports 389,834 total removals for FY 2009.
  • 136,343 (35%) had a prior criminal conviction.
  • 253,491 were non-criminal immigration violators.
  • 151,893 people were removed by ICE at the border (FY 2013 report), so one can calculate 237,941 were interior removals.
  • Allowing that there was no policy in place prioritizing the removal of convicted criminal immigration violators in 2009, one can apply the 35% rate of criminal deportations to the total interior number to estimate that 83,279 criminals were deported from the interior.
  • This would leave 154,662 non-criminal, non-border removals (40% of the total FY 2009 removals).

Note: That specific breakout is not currently available from ICE. If you have more specific data, we are happy to incorporate it.